State of the race for 2023 Presidency

• Published date: 09 January 2023
• Publication title: Nigeria - The Nation

From yesterday, our team of correspondents and analysts have been taking a look at how the next month presidential race is shaping up. In this instalment, which focuses on the Northern zones, Managing Editor (Northern Operations) Yusuf Alli, zeroes in on four presidential candidates who are making varying degrees of impact in the region. They are Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) and Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). Additional reports by KOLADE ADEYEMI (JOS); DAVID ADENUGA (BAUCHI); UJA EMMANUEL (MAKURDI); ABDULGAFAR ALABELEWE (KADUNA); SOLA SHITTU (GOMBE); JUSTINA ASISHANA (MINNA); JOEL DUKU (MAIDUGURI); LINUS OOTA (LAFIA); AUGUSTINE OKEZIE (KATSINA); ONIMISI ALAO (YOLA) and ADEKUNLE JIMOH (ILORIN).

NIGER:

In Niger State, there are no longer old, strong local politicians in the All Progressives Congress (APC) because the government in the last eight years has further demystified the power blocs in the state. The emerging leaders among the youths, especially in the APC, tend to favor and support the aspiration of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The former political warlords in the state have been relegated to the background, thereby forcing them to queue behind the new emerging leaders like Senator Sani Musa, APC National Vice Chairman, Northcentral, Mu'azu Bawa Rijau and Jonathan Vatsa, whose move contributed to the success of the APC in the 2015 general elections. Despite his loss in the primaries, Senator Abdullahi Sabi is strongly behind the APC and has been mobilizing his people from the zone.

Other politicians in the state rooting for the APC are those vying for political offices and those occupying various offices.

The former Chairman of APC, Jubril Imam, who was unceremoniously removed is still undecided on his stand to either leave or stay in APC.

In the PDP, the party seems to be in one camp now with the coming together of former Governor Mu'azu Babangida Aliyu group, and the PDP Chairman, Tanko Beji group.

For now, there seems to be unity in the PDP camp. This development may give strength to the support of the PDP presidential candidate in the state as the former governor has always been a strong ally of Atiku.

There is also Ibrahim Ebbo, the former DG of Special Duties to the Niger State Governor, who defected to the PDP from the APC and Umar Nasko, who has defected back to the PDP from APC. They are all rooting for PDP.

Other non-state actors are Generals in the state. For now, nobody can categorically state where they belong. As much as their political influence seem to be nose-diving, candidates in all political parties may have themselves to blame if they think they cannot influence decision and voting strength in the state.

The visibility of the parties in Niger State:

2019 Election Result

APC 612,311

PDP 218,057

For now, Niger state can be described as an APC-led state. Niger State had been under the PDP until 2015 when the Buhari tsunami shook the state and made the state an APC-led administration. In 2019, APC was able to sustain the tempo to remain in power.

Niger State can still be referred to as leaning APC, though one cannot rule out the vital influence of the Kwankwasiyya group (NNPP), in view of the fact that he has these cult-like followers, especially in Niger North zone, which is predominantly a Muslim area.

Both parties, which are highly visible in the state, are the APC and PDP, with the NNPP following strongly behind.

For NNPP, the party depends on the political structure of its governorship candidate, Alhaji Ibrahim Mohammed Sorodeke, who pulled out from the APC after the gubernatorial primaries alongside his large number of followers.

For the Labour Party, its inability to have candidates for all the National Assembly positions in the state is a major setback. Another factor that may affect the Labour Party in the state is the fact that the power zoning policy of the state does not favor where its governorship candidate, Joshua Bawa comes from. However, one cannot rule out a good outing from the Labour Party in Minna, Suleja, and Kontagora being cosmopolitan cities.

During the 2019 presidential elections, APC polled 612,371 votes against the PDP, which earned 218,052. The state delivered over 68 percent of its votes to APC.

In the 2015 general elections, the people voted massively for APC, and from all indications, the trend may remain the same because other political parties have not shown seriousness in engaging in a massive campaign. Also, they are yet to sell their blueprints and plans to the people of the state. For PDP, which should be a strong opposition, its followers only engage in trading insults. PDP goes about its activities in a way that makes it look like a secret cult as no one knows its activities or what it is doing.

For Niger state, it may be APC as the case has been.

NASARAWA

2019 Election Result

APC 289,903

PDP 283,847

The major parties with substantial presence in the state are APC and PDP. NNPP and Labour Party have no base in Nasarawa State to cause any upset. The election is actually a battle that is going to be fought in the 13 LGAs of the state with gladiators and political actors bringing every act in the arsenal to outsmart one another in arguably the most contentious election in the history of the country.

Nasarawa State has since 1999, proved to be a strong hold of PDP until 2011 when the CPC formed by Muhammadu Buhari was able to make incursion when its candidate, Umaru Tanko Al-Makura, defeated an incumbent PDP government, led by the...