Cross-appeal

• Published date: 24 January 2023
• Publication title: Nigeria - The Nation

Cross-appeal - that phrase captures the constitutional requirements to win the Presidency: overall majority votes; plus a quarter of the votes cast in two-third of the 36 states of Nigeria. That is 24 states.

None of the candidates - leading or fringe - boasts a home region of 24 states.

Only Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano), of the New Nigeria People's Party (NNPP), comes from the North West, which has seven states. Peter Obi (Anambra), of the Labour Party (LP), boasts five states in his native South East.

Bola Tinubu (Lagos) of APC has a home region of six states, same as the North East of Atiku Abubakar (Adamawa) of PDP.

So, even if Kwankwaso locks up all of the North West votes, he has absolutely no path to the Presidency if he doesn't make a dent on other geo-political zones.

That would appear Kwankwaso's weakest link, despite entering the fray with the highest number of states in his home region. Indeed, this strength is his innate weakness - for his name appears to resonate little outside his home region. In the South, particularly, Kwankwaso is a little less than a distant echo.

That's a big shame, for Kwankwaso, as two-term, non-consecutive governor of Kano, showed brilliant vision and acute policy thrusts - a policy thrust rich in infrastructure, agriculture and education, that his successor and former deputy, Abdullahi Ganduje, has furiously built upon.

In zonal cross-appeal, particularly outside the North, Kwankwaso has little path to the Presidency, other things being equal. But because of his criss-cross between APC and PDP, he might hurt both parties in his native Kano and catchment areas. Should there be a run-off, he might end up the northern beautiful bride to the top two.

Still, Kwankwaso appears to nurse limited expectations, dubbing his NNPP no more than Nigeria's 'fastest growing party'. Not so Obi - his dreamy counterpart, who appears yoked to unrealistic dreams.

That Obi's home region boasts the least of states - five - should not count against him anymore than seven should give Kwankwaso a bounce. But with little cross-appeal, Obi's run is even narrower than his partisans would ever admit.

Besides, Obi runs on a frothing relay of self-delusion and happy illusion, which continues to blow in his face, though he and his crowd are too far gone to admit that self-imposed debacle.

He started with fake stats. Then, he self-robed as crusader-in-chief for Nigeria's angry youths, hoping to parasite on their fickleness, by exploiting current challenges.

As...