2023 PRESIDENCY: STATE OF THE RACE PART 1

• Published date: 08 January 2023
• Publication title: Nigeria - The Nation

With the presidential election less than seven weeks from now, our team of correspondents and analysts take a look at how the race is shaping up.

In this instalment which focuses on the Northern zones, Managing Editor (Northern Operations), Yusuf Alli, zeroes in on four presidential candidates who are making varying degrees of impact in the region. They are Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).

He's supported with additional reports by Kolade Adeyemi (Jos); David Adenuga (Bauchi); Uja Emmanuel (Makurdi); AbdulGafar Alabelewe (Kaduna); Sola Shittu (Gombe); Justina Asishana (Minna); Joel Duku (Maiduguri); Linus Oota (Lafia); Augustine Okezie (Katsina); Onimisi Alao (Yola) and Adekunle Jimoh (Ilorin).

VOTING STRENGTH OF THE NORTH

Out of the interim figure of about 93,522,272 registered voters for this election cycle, 54,571,498 voters are from the North. The South has a voting strength of 47,876,400. The former also records high turnout at elections. For instance, in 2011 the average nationwide voter turnout was 53.68%. Out of that the turnout in the three Northern zones was as follows: North-Central 49%; Northeast 56%; Northwest 56%.

Four years later the average nationally was 43.65%. In the North-Central zone turnout was 43.47%; Northeast 45.22%; Northwest 55.09%. A similar pattern was recorded in 2019 when turnout crashed nationwide by almost 10% to an abysmal low of 34.75%. In the North-Central it was 35.75%; Northeast 41.71%; Northwest 44.00%.

Given this historical trend, the 19 states and Abuja that make up the region cannot be toyed with by those who want to win the election. The serious candidates among the contestants know this and are not leaving anything to chance.

How are they faring in the race thus far?

PLATEAU STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS:

2011 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 1,029,865; CPC: 365,551;

ACN: 10,181; ANPP 5,235

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 549,615; APC: 429,140

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 548,665; APC: 468,555

One key issue that has always been at play in presidential elections is religion. Other factors in the other elections are minority politics, inclination to progressive politics and indigene-settler issues. In the state, Tinubu, Atiku and Obi stand shoulder to shoulder. Ex-Kano Governor Kwankwaso is trailing behind the three candidates, judging by the calibre of notable politicians in the state backing the candidates.

Thus, the 2023 presidential election might be intriguing in the state. The popularity of these candidates and their parties make predictions of electoral victory difficult for analysts.

With the exception of Kwankwaso, the standard bearers of APC, PDP and LP launched their campaigns in the state between October and December 2022. For now, the NNPP and its flag bearer are relatively unknown in the state.

All notable politicians in the state have already pitched their tents with Tinubu, Atiku and Obi. For instance, the entire APC structures in the state are for Tinubu with Governor Simon Lalong as Director-General of the Tinubu/Shettima Presidential Campaign Council (PCC).

This implies that all Lalong's cabinet members, the state legislature, 17 LGA chairmen, councilors, ward party chairmen, two senators and six House of Representatives members are all working for the success of theTinubu/Shettima ticket.

That the entire state APC political structures are presumably for Tinubu does not deprive other candidates of support in the state. Atiku, for instance, has formidable forces working for him. Those with him include elder statesman Ambassador Yahaya Kwande, a former member of the House of Representatives, Hon. Suleiman Yahaya Kwande, a former Minister of State for Information and Culture, Alhaji Salisu Ibrahim Nakande, some former members of the House of Representatives like Hon. Timothy Golu, Hon. Johnbull Shekerau, the current House of Representatives member from Mangu/Bokkos Federal Constituency, Hon. Solomon Maren and the incumbent Senator representing Plateau North, Senator Istifanus Gyang.

Also working for the former Vice President is Senator Jeremiah Husseni and his team of supporters. Another strong pillar in his campaign is a philanthropist Chief Kefas Wungak, who is Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Kefiano Autous and Kefiano Global Foundation. From the way things are, it is safe to say that the Plateau PDP structure is for Atiku.

Comparatively, the standard-bearer of the Labour Party, Mr. Peter Obi may not have robust structures like APC and PDP, but his support base in the state looks impressive. The governorship candidate of LP in Plateau State, Dr. Patrick Dakum and his running mate Edward Pwajok (SAN) are both grassroots politicians who have all it takes to woo youths to vote for LP. Besides Dakum, it was learnt that the major force behind Obi and Labour Party is former Governor Joshua Dariye. This factor cannot be dismissed because Dakum came from Dariye's political camp having served as Commissioner for Health, and Information in his administration between 1999 and 2007. For certain, the political influence of Dariye cuts across the 17 Local Government Areas (LGAs) and it has been a major headache for the incumbent governor.

This explains why Lalong and Dariye are not in the same political camp in the state. Both are determined to use the 2023 general elections to prove their superiority over the other.

But what has endeared the people of the state to Dariye was his philanthropic nature when he ruled as a governor. He is seen as a giver, and Lalong was one of his boys until he became governor.

There is also Jonah Jang, a former governor of the state who is in the Nyesom Wike camp that is opposed to Atiku.

Apart from Dariye's impact, the minority factor will boost Obi's chances in the state.

Plateau has a voting population of 2.8 million going by the recent figure of voters released by INEC. Though substantial copies of PVCs are yet to be collected by their owners, the distribution exercise is ongoing.

If the previous voting pattern of the state in general elections is anything to go by, PDP has never lost any presidential election since 1999. Even in 2015 when APC won the governorship election, it lost the presidential poll to PDP. The same thing happened in 2019. But how it works out in 2023 is a litmus test.

In summary, Tinubu, Atiku and Obi are in a serious battle for the soul of Plateau. The party that will garner the highest votes cannot be predicted. The three leading parties have almost equal chances of winning.

A top source said: 'What is seen as the strong point of LP is the religious sentiment which is expected to play out. Also, youths who have been angling for a change which they see in Obi. If they vote for him, Atiku's base may be seriously affected.

'The strength of LP is rooted in the northern zone of the state where there is bulk of the votes. In Jos South alone, there are over 210,000 voters and in Jos North, there are over 300,000 voters for the February presidential elections.'

Tinubu may do well if APC concentrates on Jos North, part of Jos South, Wase, Kanam, part of Shendam, home town of Lalong who is also the Senatorial candidate of the APC in the said elections.'

What should also be borne in mind is that Obi and Atiku would compete from the same traditional support base, whereas the APC strongholds remain relatively intact. In 2015, many Christians were believed to have voted against Buhari. They voted for then President Goodluck Jonathan, a Christian. In 2019, they shifted support to Atiku. Now, there is Obi, who is subtly waving the religious card. Will those who voted for Jonathan give Obi their votes?

VERDICT: BATTLEGROUND

BAUCHI STATE

REGISTERED VOTERS: 2,801,512

2011 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 258,404; CPC: 1,315,209;

ACN: 4,392; ANPP 1,455

2015 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 86,085; APC: 931,598

2019 ELECTION RESULT

PDP: 209,313; APC: 798,428

Fierce battle between Tinubu, Atiku

Both PDP and APC are popular in Bauchi but that cannot be said of the LP and NNPP. The first two parties control large parts of the state.

But APC has always enjoyed the goodwill of the people at presidential level. This was quite evident in 2015 when President Muhammadu Buhari defeated the then-PDP candidate, former Goodluck Jonathan by over one million votes.

Similarly, in the 2019 elections, Buhari defeated Atiku of PDP by a wide margin despite the ex-VP's popularity in the Northeast. The PDP, however, went on to win the governorship election due to protest votes by some APC members against their candidate.

If the results of previous polls are anything to go by, APC stands a better chance. In 2015 Buhari defeated Jonathan by over a million vote margin in the state.

Similarly, in 2019, he polled 798,428 votes to beat Atiku who got 209,313 votes. Buhari won in 19 out of 20 local government areas of the state.

Atiku won in Bogoro, the local government area where former House of Representatives Speaker, Yakubu Dogara, comes from, getting 23,664 votes...